Prime minister Kan and former party secretary and overall heavyweight Ozawa are battling it out for the DPJ party leadership (and, incidentally, the seat of Prime minister) in a week or so. They have fairly different stances on various issues (the balance between rural and urban areas on one hand, and local self-determination - and thus the right to keep tax money at home - on the other for instance), but they matter a lot less than the two candidates themselves. This is really a referendum on Ozawa, more than anything else, made possible in part because Kan failed as a leader in the recent upper house election.
MTC thinks the battle is good for the DPJ, what with the constant media exposure and the DPJ message being drummed into everyone's heads. I'm not as sure. "left-shoe-first-or-right-I-just-can't-decide" Hatoyama came down in support of an Ozawa candidacy (after having kicked him out when Prime minister, and after being against earlier the same day), and others are supporting him due to old political debts. Other factions, local party chapters and supporters are similarly weighing what either candidate would mean for them and their position in the party.
It stinks, in other words, of the same backroom political dealing that the DPJ promised to abolish along with the LDP. It's being shoved into the face of the voters every day for weeks, and this time they won't even have the satisfaction of actually voting for either; they're passive spectators as a few hundred insiders decide who'll be their next Prime minister. Sure, the LDP did the same - three times in a row the past couple of years - but not being worse than the LDP is not exactly a lofty goal to aim for. And again, the whole reason to vote for the DPJ is to get away from exactly this kind of behavior.
Okumura of Globaltalk21 thinks Kan will be the winner. Let's hope so - maybe. Ozawa is very unpopular among voters, and he may cause a permanent rift within the DPJ if he wins. Also, changing Prime ministers after three months would be a new, hard to beat record even in Japan. On the other hand, the LDP hasn't really gained on this unfolding saga, so if the DPJ falls apart that could trigger the political realignment that Japan will eventually have to go through, one way or another.
And there'd be something epic about Ozawa the Destroyer tearing apart his own last, greatest creation at the very moment of reaching his lifelong goal.
Showing posts with label dpj. Show all posts
Showing posts with label dpj. Show all posts
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Hatoyama Leaves, and so does Ozawa
Prime minister Hatoyama just announced that he'll be stepping down in response to the fallout from the US base mess and the resulting breakup of the coalition. No word on exactly when he's leaving - or if he'll manage to drag Ozawa down with him - but he'll address the members of both houses today.
Presumably he'll tell everyone exactly when he'll step down at that point. Or he'll tell people he's changed his mind and would like to continue, or decide he hasn't decided on the Futenma relocation after all, or fail to show up when he couldn't decide on what tie to wear. Steely resolve has never been his strong point.
Japanese politics may have many faults. Being boring is not one of them, thankfully.
Update: Hatoyama's apparently leaving before the election - as soon as a new leader (Naoto Kan, presumably) is elected. More significantly, Ozawa has agreed to step down as well. The end of an era, and of one of the more interesting political operators in Japan.
Presumably he'll tell everyone exactly when he'll step down at that point. Or he'll tell people he's changed his mind and would like to continue, or decide he hasn't decided on the Futenma relocation after all, or fail to show up when he couldn't decide on what tie to wear. Steely resolve has never been his strong point.
Japanese politics may have many faults. Being boring is not one of them, thankfully.
Update: Hatoyama's apparently leaving before the election - as soon as a new leader (Naoto Kan, presumably) is elected. More significantly, Ozawa has agreed to step down as well. The end of an era, and of one of the more interesting political operators in Japan.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Breaking Up Is Hard To Do
I haven't written about politics here for a while. I'm kind of burnt out on it, frankly, and my focus has been split up over Japan, the upcoming Swedish elections (it starts to look like a nailbiter) and general European activities as well. But with the latest turns of events here I'm long overdue for an update.
The political situation here is a complete, utter dysfunctional mess. Nothing new in other words. The very short summary of the current state is that support for the DPJ, who won the last lower-house election, and the Hatoyama government has dropped from solid 70% support ratings down to the 20-odd percent disaster zone, in less than a year. Even more amazing, they've managed that stomach-churning drop all by themselves; the opposition LDP has been invisible, has not managed to pick up any support - that's more than a little impressive, frankly - and doesn't even seem to be in the game at all. The two largest parties now have a combined support from only 40% of all voters. Shisaku has the latest numbers (though no links to the sources).
This past week the DPJ has very publicly and very noisily reneged on an election promise - one that is fundamental to their SDP coalition partner - after wavering for over six months. The SDP has proceeded to break the coalition a month or so before the upcoming upper-house election. The only question now, really, is whether Hatoyama leaves before the election (unlikely; it's too close and there's nobody willing to step up), or if he gets kicked out after it to take responsibility for what promises to become quite a disaster at the polls.
The Hatoyama government has displayed many facets of venal incompetence the past year - let it never be said they're not a well-rounded team - but what has sealed its fate is the American military base in Futenma, Okinawa. The Futenma base is right next to Naha city, causing a lot of disturbance, noise and pollution, and the base isn't able to expand. The LDP and the US signed an agreement many years ago to move the base to Nago, again in Okinawa. There's two problems with the move, however: The area has still-unspoiled coral reefs and is home to endangered species. A base on the coast would wipe it out. Also, most US bases are in Okinawa already, and Okinawans are understandable more than a little angry that they alone have to accept the burden while the rest of the country mostly does not. A move, many think, should be somewhere else, and especially out of Okinawa to distribute this burden a bit more equitably.
Up until last year's election, this was all mostly of interest to Okinawan residents and to foreign-policy wonks. The DPJ technically only promised to review the Futenma move; the way it was presented and received by the public, however, it was effectively a promise to move Futenma base out of Okinawa. This impression was reinforced by the coalition with the SDP that has vocally and strongly opposed the base move from the outset.
When Hatoyama brought up changing the agreed-on plan with the US, they flatly refused to even discuss the matter. Over the past winter Hatoyama has repeatedly set new deadlines for resolving the issue, and sent up trial balloons for any number of solutions all of which have been shot down without even a hearing by the US authorities as well as any local government that would be affected. Hatoyama's been back-tracking in a series of public and humiliating steps - forced by US stonewalling and his own political incompetence - until last week when he announced that the existing plan would be implemented without so much as a face-saving cosmetic change.
The SDP leader Fukushima, a cabinet minister, publicly refused to sign the decision, and was kicked out of the government by Hatoyama last week and yesterday the SDP announced they're withdrawing from the coalition altogether.
Who are the losers? Hatoyama, of course. He has amply demonstrated his lack of decision-making and political skills, and his remaining time as prime minister is probably mercifully short. The DPJ takes a lot of political damage over this as well; it's their government after all, and they're the ones that elected Hatoyama prime minister candidate in the first place. The LDP has completely failed to capitalize on this in opposition. The current government inherited the whole mess from them, and if there was any issue they could not use to their advantage this was it.
The US is another loser, and they can partly blame themselves for it. The move was locally unpopular but it wasn't a major problem; people still elected local pro-base leaders based on other political issues. Had they agreed to review the decision and to make some substantive but peripheral changes to it, they would have been able to defuse much of the opposition. They may well even have been able to keep the base in Okinawa. But the stonewalling, the public humiliating treatment of the Japanese prime minister and the resulting six-month non-stop media coverage has brought the issue front and center. As Our Man in Abiko says, the public debate has shifted from base relocations to a larger, and more questioning, debate about the presence of foreign military in Japan. The public was previously non-committal towards the whole issue; now opinion has hardened into opposition.
The "victory" itself is likely to prove illusory. As Kamei, the politically shrewd leader of the People's New Party, another minor coalition member, said, this decision probably doesn't mean a thing in practice, since actually relocating the base to Nago has now become politically impossible. The current governor and local mayor are solidly anti-base and opposition runs strong thanks to the combination of US indifference and Hatoyama's bumbling. As a result, the US isn't going to actually see a new base for a generation, perhaps longer. Meanwhile, using Futenma will continue to become less viable over time due to the noise and danger. Another plane crash in an urban area like the one a few years ago, and using the base may become untenable.
Winners? The SDP, of course. They lost much of their electorate once due to a compromise over their core values; sticking with them this time seems to have paid immediate dividends in the healthy bounce in support reported by MTC above. With the election only about a month away, and with the Futenma issue fairly certain to stay fresh in the media in the run-up, they're likely to see an election payoff from those numbers too. Another winner is, likely, Your Party (Minna No To). which has sailed up as the third largest party lately, and looks well placed to soak up a good deal of disappointed centrist voters (I heard one of their speaker trucks a while ago; a major slogan was "we're neither LDP nor DPJ").
A final, perhaps surprising, winner may be the Okinawans. The move itself looks likely to be a dead duck, a resolution on paper only with little chance of actually being implemented. Meanwhile, the long-festering local problem has burst on to the national stage, a bona-fide election issue, with the public largely in support. Their chances of getting a fair hearing nationally has probably never been as good.
The political situation here is a complete, utter dysfunctional mess. Nothing new in other words. The very short summary of the current state is that support for the DPJ, who won the last lower-house election, and the Hatoyama government has dropped from solid 70% support ratings down to the 20-odd percent disaster zone, in less than a year. Even more amazing, they've managed that stomach-churning drop all by themselves; the opposition LDP has been invisible, has not managed to pick up any support - that's more than a little impressive, frankly - and doesn't even seem to be in the game at all. The two largest parties now have a combined support from only 40% of all voters. Shisaku has the latest numbers (though no links to the sources).
This past week the DPJ has very publicly and very noisily reneged on an election promise - one that is fundamental to their SDP coalition partner - after wavering for over six months. The SDP has proceeded to break the coalition a month or so before the upcoming upper-house election. The only question now, really, is whether Hatoyama leaves before the election (unlikely; it's too close and there's nobody willing to step up), or if he gets kicked out after it to take responsibility for what promises to become quite a disaster at the polls.
The Hatoyama government has displayed many facets of venal incompetence the past year - let it never be said they're not a well-rounded team - but what has sealed its fate is the American military base in Futenma, Okinawa. The Futenma base is right next to Naha city, causing a lot of disturbance, noise and pollution, and the base isn't able to expand. The LDP and the US signed an agreement many years ago to move the base to Nago, again in Okinawa. There's two problems with the move, however: The area has still-unspoiled coral reefs and is home to endangered species. A base on the coast would wipe it out. Also, most US bases are in Okinawa already, and Okinawans are understandable more than a little angry that they alone have to accept the burden while the rest of the country mostly does not. A move, many think, should be somewhere else, and especially out of Okinawa to distribute this burden a bit more equitably.
Up until last year's election, this was all mostly of interest to Okinawan residents and to foreign-policy wonks. The DPJ technically only promised to review the Futenma move; the way it was presented and received by the public, however, it was effectively a promise to move Futenma base out of Okinawa. This impression was reinforced by the coalition with the SDP that has vocally and strongly opposed the base move from the outset.
When Hatoyama brought up changing the agreed-on plan with the US, they flatly refused to even discuss the matter. Over the past winter Hatoyama has repeatedly set new deadlines for resolving the issue, and sent up trial balloons for any number of solutions all of which have been shot down without even a hearing by the US authorities as well as any local government that would be affected. Hatoyama's been back-tracking in a series of public and humiliating steps - forced by US stonewalling and his own political incompetence - until last week when he announced that the existing plan would be implemented without so much as a face-saving cosmetic change.
The SDP leader Fukushima, a cabinet minister, publicly refused to sign the decision, and was kicked out of the government by Hatoyama last week and yesterday the SDP announced they're withdrawing from the coalition altogether.
Who are the losers? Hatoyama, of course. He has amply demonstrated his lack of decision-making and political skills, and his remaining time as prime minister is probably mercifully short. The DPJ takes a lot of political damage over this as well; it's their government after all, and they're the ones that elected Hatoyama prime minister candidate in the first place. The LDP has completely failed to capitalize on this in opposition. The current government inherited the whole mess from them, and if there was any issue they could not use to their advantage this was it.
The US is another loser, and they can partly blame themselves for it. The move was locally unpopular but it wasn't a major problem; people still elected local pro-base leaders based on other political issues. Had they agreed to review the decision and to make some substantive but peripheral changes to it, they would have been able to defuse much of the opposition. They may well even have been able to keep the base in Okinawa. But the stonewalling, the public humiliating treatment of the Japanese prime minister and the resulting six-month non-stop media coverage has brought the issue front and center. As Our Man in Abiko says, the public debate has shifted from base relocations to a larger, and more questioning, debate about the presence of foreign military in Japan. The public was previously non-committal towards the whole issue; now opinion has hardened into opposition.
The "victory" itself is likely to prove illusory. As Kamei, the politically shrewd leader of the People's New Party, another minor coalition member, said, this decision probably doesn't mean a thing in practice, since actually relocating the base to Nago has now become politically impossible. The current governor and local mayor are solidly anti-base and opposition runs strong thanks to the combination of US indifference and Hatoyama's bumbling. As a result, the US isn't going to actually see a new base for a generation, perhaps longer. Meanwhile, using Futenma will continue to become less viable over time due to the noise and danger. Another plane crash in an urban area like the one a few years ago, and using the base may become untenable.
Winners? The SDP, of course. They lost much of their electorate once due to a compromise over their core values; sticking with them this time seems to have paid immediate dividends in the healthy bounce in support reported by MTC above. With the election only about a month away, and with the Futenma issue fairly certain to stay fresh in the media in the run-up, they're likely to see an election payoff from those numbers too. Another winner is, likely, Your Party (Minna No To). which has sailed up as the third largest party lately, and looks well placed to soak up a good deal of disappointed centrist voters (I heard one of their speaker trucks a while ago; a major slogan was "we're neither LDP nor DPJ").
A final, perhaps surprising, winner may be the Okinawans. The move itself looks likely to be a dead duck, a resolution on paper only with little chance of actually being implemented. Meanwhile, the long-festering local problem has burst on to the national stage, a bona-fide election issue, with the public largely in support. Their chances of getting a fair hearing nationally has probably never been as good.
Saturday, January 16, 2010
Ozawa On His Way Out?
Ichiro Ozawa, former DPJ president, former independent party head, former LDP member, kingmaker, power broker and all-around political backroom fixer extraordinaire may finally be on his way out of politics altogether.
His political office has been under investigation for illegal campaign donations and related things for over a year, but now funny money and a shady land deal is being traced directly to his office rather than his campaign organization. His personal secretary received what very much looks like payback from a construction company in return for receiving a dam construction contract, and two aides of his have just been arrested.
The reactions from DPJ has been supportive all along, but the tone seems to have shifted lately. Comments from DPJ members talk about how Ozawa will fight this to the end (but not that the commenter wants him to do so), and that the prosecutors will be in trouble if they fail to come up with credible evidence (but not that there is no evidence to find). Comments about how Ozawa is innocent are conspicuously thin on the ground. Hatoyama - whose own funding scandal seems to be blowing over - says he has no intention of asking Ozawa to step down. Of course, that's exactly the kind of thing you'd say about a week before you "reluctantly accept" the scandal-hit subject's resignation "to spend more time with their family".
Some people such as MTC see a political motive in the prosecutor's zeal in investigating Ozawa specifically, while letting LDP politicians infractions slide. It's quite true that the judicial branch is not nearly as apolitical and independent as it is in other countries, and it would not be the first time the police and prosecutors have affected the political process.
My take? He's dirty and the prosecutors - politically motivated or not - will be able to make a good enough case that he'll have to resign from politics. Just because the police has an underhanded motive doesn't mean they aren't right in this case. Japanese politics is famous for its endemic money troubles and illegal deals - it's frequently stated that you can't win a Japanese election without breaking the law - and Ozawa is practically the poster boy for the scheming, double-dealing Japanese politician. It's certainly possible that he hasn't taken dirty money from the construction industry. It's also possible that the pope is an atheist, that the moon landings were faked and that Elvis is still alive, but I wouldn't want to take a bet on it.
When Ozawa took the reins of the DPJ it was a party in total disarray. It wasn't a unified party as much as a collection of disparate groups with the burning desire to take down the LDP as its only common cause. The party was adrift, rocked by scandals and leadership issues, and he acted as an anchor, giving the party a coherent program and a viable political strategy. It's fair to say that without Ozawa the DPJ would perhaps not exist today, and the LDP would probably still be in power.
However, Ozawa is also an anchor to the old style of Japanese politics. He is also a consummate kingmaker and power broker1 and the media is asking, not unfairly, just how much influence he is wielding over the Hatoyama government. An important part of the DPJ program he formulated is a clean break away from this way, and that ultimately means that Ozawa himself (and, eventually, other old-style politicians) needs to go.
This may be a good time for him to step down, scandal or not. The LDP has been trying (but so far failing miserably) to discredit the DPJ through these scandals. But if these ongoing scandals are still front and center in the news in July and the upper house election they can probably hurt the DPJ. As Ozawa will need to step down at some point anyhow, this development may actually do the DPJ (and Ozawa's own health) some good by forcing his hand.
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His political office has been under investigation for illegal campaign donations and related things for over a year, but now funny money and a shady land deal is being traced directly to his office rather than his campaign organization. His personal secretary received what very much looks like payback from a construction company in return for receiving a dam construction contract, and two aides of his have just been arrested.
The reactions from DPJ has been supportive all along, but the tone seems to have shifted lately. Comments from DPJ members talk about how Ozawa will fight this to the end (but not that the commenter wants him to do so), and that the prosecutors will be in trouble if they fail to come up with credible evidence (but not that there is no evidence to find). Comments about how Ozawa is innocent are conspicuously thin on the ground. Hatoyama - whose own funding scandal seems to be blowing over - says he has no intention of asking Ozawa to step down. Of course, that's exactly the kind of thing you'd say about a week before you "reluctantly accept" the scandal-hit subject's resignation "to spend more time with their family".
Some people such as MTC see a political motive in the prosecutor's zeal in investigating Ozawa specifically, while letting LDP politicians infractions slide. It's quite true that the judicial branch is not nearly as apolitical and independent as it is in other countries, and it would not be the first time the police and prosecutors have affected the political process.
My take? He's dirty and the prosecutors - politically motivated or not - will be able to make a good enough case that he'll have to resign from politics. Just because the police has an underhanded motive doesn't mean they aren't right in this case. Japanese politics is famous for its endemic money troubles and illegal deals - it's frequently stated that you can't win a Japanese election without breaking the law - and Ozawa is practically the poster boy for the scheming, double-dealing Japanese politician. It's certainly possible that he hasn't taken dirty money from the construction industry. It's also possible that the pope is an atheist, that the moon landings were faked and that Elvis is still alive, but I wouldn't want to take a bet on it.
When Ozawa took the reins of the DPJ it was a party in total disarray. It wasn't a unified party as much as a collection of disparate groups with the burning desire to take down the LDP as its only common cause. The party was adrift, rocked by scandals and leadership issues, and he acted as an anchor, giving the party a coherent program and a viable political strategy. It's fair to say that without Ozawa the DPJ would perhaps not exist today, and the LDP would probably still be in power.
However, Ozawa is also an anchor to the old style of Japanese politics. He is also a consummate kingmaker and power broker1 and the media is asking, not unfairly, just how much influence he is wielding over the Hatoyama government. An important part of the DPJ program he formulated is a clean break away from this way, and that ultimately means that Ozawa himself (and, eventually, other old-style politicians) needs to go.
This may be a good time for him to step down, scandal or not. The LDP has been trying (but so far failing miserably) to discredit the DPJ through these scandals. But if these ongoing scandals are still front and center in the news in July and the upper house election they can probably hurt the DPJ. As Ozawa will need to step down at some point anyhow, this development may actually do the DPJ (and Ozawa's own health) some good by forcing his hand.
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#1 In an earlier era and different place he'd be the Grand Vizier constantly scheming behind the Caliphs back, complete with pointy beard and evil cackling laughter.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Hatoyama Gets Off
The amount a person or a company can donate to a politicians fund-raising organization is pretty strictly limited. Notably this goes even for the politicians themselves; even if you're very rich you're subject to the same limitation on how much money you can give and use for your own campaign1. Running for office and staying in office both take a lot of money, though, so it's not surprising that people habitually try to circumvent or outright ignore those rules.
To the relief of the prime minister and his party, the prosecutor has decided not to indict him. Hatoyama was suspected of creating fake donors - using the names of dead people, and of unwitting people who never donated anything - and padding receipts to funnel 350 million yen of his own money into his political organization. The prosecutors have determined that one of his aides - who had access to some of his funds - probably acted alone in registering fake donors. They can't show that Hatoyama himself actually knew about this.
Now, I don't move in the kind of esoteric circles that the likes of Bridgestone heirs do, and I realize the value of money is different to people like him, but I do find it stretching my credulity to believe that 350 million could just go unnoticed and that he never asked what might have happened to it. I mean, it's not the kind of money that can get lost under the sofa cushions - it'd be obviously too lumpy to sit in.
"Um, it seems there's been 350 million yen withdrawn from this account since 2004? About 100 million per year."
"Yes, sir, quite right."
"Oh. Where'd it go to?"
"Sundry expenses, sir."
"Ahh, I see. Detergent, pool cleaning and such, no doubt. Oh, but just look what a lot of donations the campaign fund got over the same period! About 100 million yen extra each year. Amazing isn't it!"
"Yes sir. Quite, sir. Amazing, sir."
Another part of the investigation is about 900 million yen given as "loans" to the organization from his mother. This is a different issue, and related to the Japanese tax laws. The inheritance tax is fairly substantial here, so there's a lot of legal do's and don'ts about what you do with your assets. These "loans" where never meant to be repaid; they were effectively gifts to Hatoyama from his mother (his brother also received similar "loans"), and probably intended to get around the inheritance tax. He and/or she will probably have to pay gift tax on that money, and possibly a penalty as well.
As an aside, an inheritance tax sounds reasonable, and probably is when done right. The problem is, in practice it hits very unevenly, and can end up with the opposite effect from what was intended. If you apply an inheritance tax evenly on all assets you get effects like widows forced from their family homes and family-owned companies broken up in order to pay the tax. That seems morally wrong to the public and is politically unpalatable, so most countries' tax laws give special - and rather arbitrary - exemptions for such things. But all exemptions give more loopholes for people to get around the tax, which lawmakers then try to close with more specific laws.
We end up with a situation where, if you use your savings to buy a home your children will pay no tax once you pass away, but if you sell the home to move to assisted living - or you just prefer to rent an apartment rather than buy - they'll have to pay tax on that very same money. If you're wealthy enough to own a controlling stake in a company your inheritance tax rate will end up much lower than if you don't. And you get laws like gift taxes between family members, that people - like the Hatoyama's - then try to get around by disguising the gifts as loans or something else.
As the system grows more Byzantine, the one constant throughout is that the more money you have, the more opportunities are open for you to lessen or avoid the tax altogether. The tax ends up hitting those will less money harder than those with more, and the few families with huge fortunes ends up paying almost nothing at all, relatively speaking - which more often than not is completely opposite of the stated goal of such a tax.
Sweden got rid of the inheritance tax a few years ago; it cost almost as much to administer as it brought in revenue, and in practice it had none of the equalizing effects it was supposed to. It's still politically contentious, though, and if the opposition wins the election next year it's not unlikely that some form of the tax is reinstated. The leaders of all three parties in the opposition coalition - the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Communists - know the tax is useless in practice. But it's a potent symbolic question for the Communists, and reinstating it'd be a cheap way to placate their members and gain their support for the overall budget. Ah, well.
#1 A noble intent to level the playing field, no doubt, but in practice you pretty much have to be wealthy to stand for election anyway; you don't have time to hold down a job and campaign at the same time. If you and your family can't afford you to quit your job, campaign for a year and then find yourself unelected and unemployed then you don't have any business in politics. And of course, if you're wealthy you're likely to have wealthy friends, relatives and business contacts that are happy to donate to you and round up more donations on your behalf. The thought is nice, though.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
The DPJ Won - Now what?
So, the DPJ actually made it (I'm a perennial pessimist regarding that party). They seem to be fairly well prepared for a power handover, so we should expect to see them get to work relatively quickly, assembling a government by mid September. How much actual change will we see? for this first year, expect only easy, highly visible, symbolic changes. The reason, of course, being the upcoming upper house election - yes, we're doing a repeat performance of the hit political show of the year next summer - and the DPJ will need to show some kind of visible progress to the voters by then. Anything very complex or time consuming may well be started but probably not pushed until after that election. Also, any issues where the DPJ is at odds with coalition partners SDPJ and the PNP will wait until after the election, when their support might no longer be necessary.
As for the fundamental questions faced by the Japanese society - things like the gulf between salaried and temp workers; the low birthrate; the rampant inequality and paternalistic social systems; the underutilization of women in the workplace - the truth is that the DPJ really is in no better position to address them than the LDP was. It is a broadly conservative party when it comes to social issues and a substantial part of the party is aghast at the thought of changing tradition-bound systems even in the face of a slowly unfolding disaster. A number of other high-profile problems, such as social security systems that no longer fit the way people live their lives, are tangentially connected to these issues and thus unlikely to see more than temporary band-aids.
For instance, many laws and regulations assume and actively promote the 20-century family unit (actually a fairly recent family type, even though many conservatives seem to believe it's traditional) of one married breadwinner, one stay-at-home parent and their children. This life is proving to be impossible to achieve for many young people, since temp jobs are not stable or high-paying enough to marry and support a family, while two working parents are very discouraged by lack of day care, rules permitting (even expecting) workplaces to fire women once they get children and other disincentives. But changing rules so that two working parents are encouraged, making it easier to be a single parent, and making it easier for women to continue a career while having children, is anathema to many conservatives and seen as a path to moral dissolution and the destruction of society.
You can certainly argue that in this they are simply following the overall attitude of the country as a whole - and Japan is indeed very conservative with regard to some social issues. But in times of crisis a leader is expected to actually lead and drive opinion rather than follow it. I don't see the DPJ do more than baby steps in this direction, just to mollify its SDPJ partner, and I'm not optimistic that the DPJ would even be able to do much more without creating a serious, potential fatal rift within the party in the process.
The DPJ win is good, it is necessary, and it will hopefully cause some long overdue change in the governance of the country. But don't expect any actual long-term solutions to Japan's current ills from this government. The crisis will have to become rather more acute for anything to happen, no matter which government is in power.
As for the fundamental questions faced by the Japanese society - things like the gulf between salaried and temp workers; the low birthrate; the rampant inequality and paternalistic social systems; the underutilization of women in the workplace - the truth is that the DPJ really is in no better position to address them than the LDP was. It is a broadly conservative party when it comes to social issues and a substantial part of the party is aghast at the thought of changing tradition-bound systems even in the face of a slowly unfolding disaster. A number of other high-profile problems, such as social security systems that no longer fit the way people live their lives, are tangentially connected to these issues and thus unlikely to see more than temporary band-aids.
For instance, many laws and regulations assume and actively promote the 20-century family unit (actually a fairly recent family type, even though many conservatives seem to believe it's traditional) of one married breadwinner, one stay-at-home parent and their children. This life is proving to be impossible to achieve for many young people, since temp jobs are not stable or high-paying enough to marry and support a family, while two working parents are very discouraged by lack of day care, rules permitting (even expecting) workplaces to fire women once they get children and other disincentives. But changing rules so that two working parents are encouraged, making it easier to be a single parent, and making it easier for women to continue a career while having children, is anathema to many conservatives and seen as a path to moral dissolution and the destruction of society.
You can certainly argue that in this they are simply following the overall attitude of the country as a whole - and Japan is indeed very conservative with regard to some social issues. But in times of crisis a leader is expected to actually lead and drive opinion rather than follow it. I don't see the DPJ do more than baby steps in this direction, just to mollify its SDPJ partner, and I'm not optimistic that the DPJ would even be able to do much more without creating a serious, potential fatal rift within the party in the process.
The DPJ win is good, it is necessary, and it will hopefully cause some long overdue change in the governance of the country. But don't expect any actual long-term solutions to Japan's current ills from this government. The crisis will have to become rather more acute for anything to happen, no matter which government is in power.
Sunday, August 30, 2009
DPJ is the winner
Right now we have 224 confirmed seats for DPJ against 49 for the LDP. The combined opposition parties are within a few seats of a majority. It's completely clear that the DPJ will be well over the 240 seats they need for a simple majority, and it seems likely that they'll break the 300 seat barrier, completely reversing the LDP landslide in 2005. A few people are speculating that they may squeeze up to the 320 seats needed for a supermajority.
The numbers don't really matter; as far as the overall result is concerned the election is over, and it's a DPJ landslide. The fallout is already beginning: Aso is reportedly (and not surprisingly) resigning as LDP leader, for instance. Ota, leader for New Komeito may lose his district against a DPJ newcomer (he'll still get in on the proportional block of course). If something really surprising happens before we go to bed I'll post it, but otherwise I'll leave the shot-by-shot coverage to Observing Japan and Our Man in Abiko
New Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama with his wife around 1970.
Remember, kids, posting pictures of yourself on Facebook may be all fun and games, but it may not seem like such a good idea thirty years from now.
The numbers don't really matter; as far as the overall result is concerned the election is over, and it's a DPJ landslide. The fallout is already beginning: Aso is reportedly (and not surprisingly) resigning as LDP leader, for instance. Ota, leader for New Komeito may lose his district against a DPJ newcomer (he'll still get in on the proportional block of course). If something really surprising happens before we go to bed I'll post it, but otherwise I'll leave the shot-by-shot coverage to Observing Japan and Our Man in Abiko
New Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama with his wife around 1970.
Remember, kids, posting pictures of yourself on Facebook may be all fun and games, but it may not seem like such a good idea thirty years from now.
Election Day
After years of coy teasing and feeling each other up, the country and the parties finally embraced for election in late July. The parties' long dormant election machinery quickly rose to the occasion and thrust themselves into the public view.
For the past month the parties have been mumbling sweet nothings to the electorate through their speaker cars and their volunteers have pounded out posters and pamphlets, thrusting them into the hands of an eager public. Today the long campaign is finally climaxing in an orgiastic burst of votes flowing out all over the country.
The worn-out campaigners may well be excused if they lean back and relax for a bit tomorrow, perhaps with a cigarette.
See the hand. Follow the hand. The hand knows.
So what will be born out of this process? It looks like my prediction may have been overly cautious. To my amazement the DPJ did not manage a single self-inflicted disaster, and looks set to achieve a majority. People are even speculating on the (remote) possibility of them achieving a 2/3rds majority on their own. The LDP seems to fall hard, and even the party leadership has had to stay and campaign in their own districts rather than travel and help other members.
Some credit for this outcome must be given to the different campaigns. Tobias Harris points out that the DPJ has run a completely positive campaign, talking only about what they want to achieve and largely ignoring the LDP. The LDP in turn has run a largely negative campaign, and mostly talked about, well, what the DPJ wants to achieve. It's a sad indictment on a party when it's best election efforts only manages to reinforce their opponents message.
We're not going to worry too much about the election here. The weather is good - a little hazy but pleasantly cool - so we'll have lunch at a Spanish restaurant near Midosuji, then take a walk around town. I'll drag my Pentax 67 along, see if I can find something interesting election-related to shoot, and we'll shop for tonight's dinner. Tomorrow is a workday so we're off to bed early; we'll see the election results once we get up tomorrow morning.
If you want to look at the election in much more detail, check out Harris' blog, Observing Japan for a lot of background and analysis. stippy.com has an idiosynchratic cheat sheet of sorts for people that want to follow along in detail. Transpacific Radio (which, to be honest, I have never listened to) will hold a live webcast.
The Mainichi Shinbun has an election site, as does the Asahi Shinbun and Yomiuri Shinbun. I have no idea which one is better; they all get fed the same data though so it probably doesn't matter.
Kyodo news agency has an English-language site with a neat, graphical at-a-glance illustration for those who can't be bothered with actual words or numbers.
I guess there won't be any actual data to look at until after 20:00 when the polls close. If anyone knows of a better source than these to get a good overview of the election, feel free to drop a note in the comments.
For the past month the parties have been mumbling sweet nothings to the electorate through their speaker cars and their volunteers have pounded out posters and pamphlets, thrusting them into the hands of an eager public. Today the long campaign is finally climaxing in an orgiastic burst of votes flowing out all over the country.
The worn-out campaigners may well be excused if they lean back and relax for a bit tomorrow, perhaps with a cigarette.
See the hand. Follow the hand. The hand knows.
So what will be born out of this process? It looks like my prediction may have been overly cautious. To my amazement the DPJ did not manage a single self-inflicted disaster, and looks set to achieve a majority. People are even speculating on the (remote) possibility of them achieving a 2/3rds majority on their own. The LDP seems to fall hard, and even the party leadership has had to stay and campaign in their own districts rather than travel and help other members.
Some credit for this outcome must be given to the different campaigns. Tobias Harris points out that the DPJ has run a completely positive campaign, talking only about what they want to achieve and largely ignoring the LDP. The LDP in turn has run a largely negative campaign, and mostly talked about, well, what the DPJ wants to achieve. It's a sad indictment on a party when it's best election efforts only manages to reinforce their opponents message.
We're not going to worry too much about the election here. The weather is good - a little hazy but pleasantly cool - so we'll have lunch at a Spanish restaurant near Midosuji, then take a walk around town. I'll drag my Pentax 67 along, see if I can find something interesting election-related to shoot, and we'll shop for tonight's dinner. Tomorrow is a workday so we're off to bed early; we'll see the election results once we get up tomorrow morning.
If you want to look at the election in much more detail, check out Harris' blog, Observing Japan for a lot of background and analysis. stippy.com has an idiosynchratic cheat sheet of sorts for people that want to follow along in detail. Transpacific Radio (which, to be honest, I have never listened to) will hold a live webcast.
The Mainichi Shinbun has an election site, as does the Asahi Shinbun and Yomiuri Shinbun. I have no idea which one is better; they all get fed the same data though so it probably doesn't matter.
Kyodo news agency has an English-language site with a neat, graphical at-a-glance illustration for those who can't be bothered with actual words or numbers.
I guess there won't be any actual data to look at until after 20:00 when the polls close. If anyone knows of a better source than these to get a good overview of the election, feel free to drop a note in the comments.
Tuesday, July 21, 2009
Diet Dissolution
The party is supported by 36% - one in three - of the population. Only 28% - one in four - thinks its leader is suitable for the Prime minister's office. That's not good numbers, you say? Open goal for the opposing party? This party - the DPJ - is the opposing party and it manages to look good only by comparison to the governing party LDP. Their latest support figure is 18%, and their leader - Prime minister Aso Tarō - is considered suitable in his job by 11%, according to the latest Mainichi poll.
Aso dissolved the diet today in preparation for the upcoming election, and the LDP is showing signs of breaking apart over it. Last week a group within the LDP announced they had the lawmaker signatures needed to force a party general meeting. The idea was to depose Aso and elect a new party leader before the general election. Only, just after rebel leader Nakagawa had his triumphant press conference a number of his signatories started backtracking, removing their names, saying they didn't really mean anything by it. The end result was a non-binding meeting today where Aso listened to complaints and grievances from disaffected members - and likely completely ignored them, of course, as he has nothing left to lose and nothing left to prove anyway. He's been Prime minister of Japan, he'll stand for election and he'll go down in history no matter what the result. From his point of view it's no doubt better to be remembered as "The Last Prime Minister of the LDP" than "Temporary Nobody #4".
The house dissolution kicks off the "pre-campaign" season, until the start of the official campaigns on the 18th of August. I have to confess I do not know the detailed election laws here - I have no authoritative sources in English or Swedish - but they are many, strict and frankly quite strange. Once the official campaign period starts, some ridiculously restrictive campaign rules come into force. They're worth a separate post, but when a single car with a loud-speaker chanting the candidate's name is the most effective allowed means of reaching a couple hundred thousand people in an electoral district something is seriously out of whack.
However, before the 18th any campaigning is forbidden, by anybody. What constitutes "campaigning" seems a muddy, stretchy concept. Any online or mass media discussion of policy or merits of one candidate over another could be considered campaigning if you were in that frame of mind. In the run-up to previous elections the "pre-campaign" period has been short. This time, however, there's a whole month of dead time, with the house out of session and election called but with no legal way to campaign. Expect to see lower-house candidates stretch the definition of "campaigning" to its breaking point in the weeks ahead.
Aso dissolved the diet today in preparation for the upcoming election, and the LDP is showing signs of breaking apart over it. Last week a group within the LDP announced they had the lawmaker signatures needed to force a party general meeting. The idea was to depose Aso and elect a new party leader before the general election. Only, just after rebel leader Nakagawa had his triumphant press conference a number of his signatories started backtracking, removing their names, saying they didn't really mean anything by it. The end result was a non-binding meeting today where Aso listened to complaints and grievances from disaffected members - and likely completely ignored them, of course, as he has nothing left to lose and nothing left to prove anyway. He's been Prime minister of Japan, he'll stand for election and he'll go down in history no matter what the result. From his point of view it's no doubt better to be remembered as "The Last Prime Minister of the LDP" than "Temporary Nobody #4".
The house dissolution kicks off the "pre-campaign" season, until the start of the official campaigns on the 18th of August. I have to confess I do not know the detailed election laws here - I have no authoritative sources in English or Swedish - but they are many, strict and frankly quite strange. Once the official campaign period starts, some ridiculously restrictive campaign rules come into force. They're worth a separate post, but when a single car with a loud-speaker chanting the candidate's name is the most effective allowed means of reaching a couple hundred thousand people in an electoral district something is seriously out of whack.
However, before the 18th any campaigning is forbidden, by anybody. What constitutes "campaigning" seems a muddy, stretchy concept. Any online or mass media discussion of policy or merits of one candidate over another could be considered campaigning if you were in that frame of mind. In the run-up to previous elections the "pre-campaign" period has been short. This time, however, there's a whole month of dead time, with the house out of session and election called but with no legal way to campaign. Expect to see lower-house candidates stretch the definition of "campaigning" to its breaking point in the weeks ahead.
Friday, July 3, 2009
DPJ - No hurdle too low, no goal too open
So, the LDP is crashing in the opinion polls. The party is in complete disarray, Aso has lost what little authority he had but refuses to step down, and an election must be held within months. It's an open goal for the opposition.
Of course, the DPJ has never yet seen a golden opportunity they can't squander. The ink not yet dry on his appointment, new DPJ leader Hatoyamas office is already under investigation for illegal campaign contributions. This time it's money from himself donated to his campaign office with the names of unwitting - and sometimes dead1 - people used as cover. There's a 10 million yen limit for donations by any one individual but this way his campaign aide could transfer several times that from his personal accounts.
Now, when the predecessor Ozawa was ultimately forced from office for illegal campaign contributions, did it even once cross what passes for the DPJ leadership's minds to perhaps vet the candidates for this sort of thing? Couldn't they even have just asked him if, oh, by the way, you don't happen to have any illegal campaign money-related problems do you, the kind that will completely derail our attempts at a once-in-an-era chance at political power? No, of course not. I suspect that if they really did, they'd have a hard time filling a single post in the party.
As the incumbent LDP and the Aso government is exposing itself as a thieving group of dishonest, sleazy, money-grubbing, power-mad, backstabbing selfish bastards, a lot of people seem to be asking why anybody would ever want to vote LDP in the upcoming election.
I do understand why. At least the LDP people are good at being dishonest, sleazy and money-grubbing. The DPJ can't even manage low-grade sleaze competently. Imagine having such clowns bumble about in office, completely fumbling the large-scale corruption that comes with being in office. It'd be embarrassing and painful to watch. It'd be like one of those TV amateur talent shows where an earnest and likeable singer who should never have passed the first round is making a complete and total ass of themselves on a national stage.
I don't vote in Japanese elections of course. And I'm happy I don't; I'd really hate to have to choose between two such miserable alternatives. Let's hear it for a resounding win by mr. None Of The Above.
--
Of course, the DPJ has never yet seen a golden opportunity they can't squander. The ink not yet dry on his appointment, new DPJ leader Hatoyamas office is already under investigation for illegal campaign contributions. This time it's money from himself donated to his campaign office with the names of unwitting - and sometimes dead1 - people used as cover. There's a 10 million yen limit for donations by any one individual but this way his campaign aide could transfer several times that from his personal accounts.
Now, when the predecessor Ozawa was ultimately forced from office for illegal campaign contributions, did it even once cross what passes for the DPJ leadership's minds to perhaps vet the candidates for this sort of thing? Couldn't they even have just asked him if, oh, by the way, you don't happen to have any illegal campaign money-related problems do you, the kind that will completely derail our attempts at a once-in-an-era chance at political power? No, of course not. I suspect that if they really did, they'd have a hard time filling a single post in the party.
As the incumbent LDP and the Aso government is exposing itself as a thieving group of dishonest, sleazy, money-grubbing, power-mad, backstabbing selfish bastards, a lot of people seem to be asking why anybody would ever want to vote LDP in the upcoming election.
I do understand why. At least the LDP people are good at being dishonest, sleazy and money-grubbing. The DPJ can't even manage low-grade sleaze competently. Imagine having such clowns bumble about in office, completely fumbling the large-scale corruption that comes with being in office. It'd be embarrassing and painful to watch. It'd be like one of those TV amateur talent shows where an earnest and likeable singer who should never have passed the first round is making a complete and total ass of themselves on a national stage.
I don't vote in Japanese elections of course. And I'm happy I don't; I'd really hate to have to choose between two such miserable alternatives. Let's hear it for a resounding win by mr. None Of The Above.
--
#1 Ah yes, dead "voters". At least he knows the classics in political fraud.
Saturday, May 16, 2009
Hatoyama is new DPJ leader
According to Mainichi Shinbun, Yukio Hatoyama is elected new DPJ leader, beating the other challenger Okada.
I don't know much about either Okada or Hatoyama so I have no strong opinion on this. I do know that Hatoyama is a hereditary politician while Okada is not. On the other hand, he does have a bouffant hairdo to rival North Korea's Kim Jong Il who managed to grab power and stay leader in his country for many years now; a good omen of sorts for the DPJ perhaps.
[Edit] I'm just saying:
Perhaps they can exchange barbershop tips during top-level meetings. Left from kremlin.ru, second and fourth from DPJ website, third Creative commons.
I don't know much about either Okada or Hatoyama so I have no strong opinion on this. I do know that Hatoyama is a hereditary politician while Okada is not. On the other hand, he does have a bouffant hairdo to rival North Korea's Kim Jong Il who managed to grab power and stay leader in his country for many years now; a good omen of sorts for the DPJ perhaps.
[Edit] I'm just saying:
Perhaps they can exchange barbershop tips during top-level meetings. Left from kremlin.ru, second and fourth from DPJ website, third Creative commons.
Friday, May 15, 2009
The race is on
..and it's a sprint. DPJ (read:Ozawa) decided that an election for the next leader should be held sooner rather than later. It's due tomorrow Saturday, which is very, very fast. "It is" also decided that it's an election among the Diet members only rather than the party rank and file. The aim is clearly to push Yukio Hatoyama, a long-time Ozawa loyalist, as the next leader over Okada, the other front runner.
It's certainly fair enough; Ozawa may be leaving, but it's due to external pressures, not because he has disgraced himself within the party. It's only natural for him to have a say in choosing his successor. Besides, what's the point of being a politician if you can't even play politics in your own political party?
Will Ozawa's plan succeed, though? The majority of factions in DPJ lean towards Hatoyama, but Jun Okamura points out that the grassroots and the general public favour Okada. Enough diet members may well read the election tea leaves and break with their factions to give Okada the upper hand. Who will win? I have not a clue, but we have less than two days to find out.
It's certainly fair enough; Ozawa may be leaving, but it's due to external pressures, not because he has disgraced himself within the party. It's only natural for him to have a say in choosing his successor. Besides, what's the point of being a politician if you can't even play politics in your own political party?
Will Ozawa's plan succeed, though? The majority of factions in DPJ lean towards Hatoyama, but Jun Okamura points out that the grassroots and the general public favour Okada. Enough diet members may well read the election tea leaves and break with their factions to give Okada the upper hand. Who will win? I have not a clue, but we have less than two days to find out.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Ozawa is a Goner
Ozawa, leader of opposition party DPJ has resigned, quit, abdicated, taken his leave, thrown in the towel, hung up his gloves, punched out and left the stage. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride, the fat lady has well and truly sung.
His office was under investigation for taking illegal campaign contributions from a construction company. This is a bit of a liability when your party's election strategy and its whole reason to exist is based on opposing the ruling party LDP for being the kind of corrupt party that accepts illegal contributions from the construction industry.
This is putting a bit of a crimp in the LDP plans to use Ozawa's personal impopularity (the guy can apparently antagonize people by simply being in the same building) and the cloud of the bribery investigation as issues in the coming election. Tobias Harris of Observing Japan has fingered Katsuya Okada as a possible successor. Like prime minister Aso he comes from a very rich family (owners of the Aeon supermarket chain) so he's had no need to dabble in the murky waters of campaign contributions. And unlike Aso (and more than half the LDP government) he has not inherited his seat from a relative, the frequency of which is a peculiarly Japanese state of affairs that has been gaining unfavorable attention lately (in no small part due to Okada himself bringing it up).
News in general and political reporting in particular really is a story, in the classical sense. You build rapport with the characters, where some are cast as heroes and others as villains. You see the underdog prevail and triumph, then be brought back to earth by hubris. There is a flow to the reporting that enhances the dramatic tension and maximizes interest in the story.
Nobody consciously does this. No reporter or editor decides that it's time to stop writing nice things about politician A and bring him down (it's unlikely to work if they did), or decide that a browbeaten party has suffered enough and is let back in the press' good graces. This ebb and flow is decided collectively, by reporters, by the readers and by the political actors themselves. There is a rhythm that resonates with the readers; the articles that follow that flow get the readers and web hits, while those that don't are ignored.
The press have spent a lot of time now beating down on Ozawa (and the DPJ) for the construction company money while they've been giving the LDP a bit of a free pass in its current role of recession fighter ("brave Aso battling Impossible Odds"). But the press is now free to shift their focus to speculation on the new DPJ leader ("who will be the Anointed One?") and possibly shift the LDP storyline onto the (not so positive) performance of the coalition during the recent economic disaster. Ozawa has loomed large on the political scene here for many years but has always been a bit of a drag on the DPJ platform; without him the dynamic changes substantially. It looks like the election may become even more interesting than thought.
You may call Japanese politics many things, but "boring" is not one of them.
His office was under investigation for taking illegal campaign contributions from a construction company. This is a bit of a liability when your party's election strategy and its whole reason to exist is based on opposing the ruling party LDP for being the kind of corrupt party that accepts illegal contributions from the construction industry.
This is putting a bit of a crimp in the LDP plans to use Ozawa's personal impopularity (the guy can apparently antagonize people by simply being in the same building) and the cloud of the bribery investigation as issues in the coming election. Tobias Harris of Observing Japan has fingered Katsuya Okada as a possible successor. Like prime minister Aso he comes from a very rich family (owners of the Aeon supermarket chain) so he's had no need to dabble in the murky waters of campaign contributions. And unlike Aso (and more than half the LDP government) he has not inherited his seat from a relative, the frequency of which is a peculiarly Japanese state of affairs that has been gaining unfavorable attention lately (in no small part due to Okada himself bringing it up).
News in general and political reporting in particular really is a story, in the classical sense. You build rapport with the characters, where some are cast as heroes and others as villains. You see the underdog prevail and triumph, then be brought back to earth by hubris. There is a flow to the reporting that enhances the dramatic tension and maximizes interest in the story.
Nobody consciously does this. No reporter or editor decides that it's time to stop writing nice things about politician A and bring him down (it's unlikely to work if they did), or decide that a browbeaten party has suffered enough and is let back in the press' good graces. This ebb and flow is decided collectively, by reporters, by the readers and by the political actors themselves. There is a rhythm that resonates with the readers; the articles that follow that flow get the readers and web hits, while those that don't are ignored.
The press have spent a lot of time now beating down on Ozawa (and the DPJ) for the construction company money while they've been giving the LDP a bit of a free pass in its current role of recession fighter ("brave Aso battling Impossible Odds"). But the press is now free to shift their focus to speculation on the new DPJ leader ("who will be the Anointed One?") and possibly shift the LDP storyline onto the (not so positive) performance of the coalition during the recent economic disaster. Ozawa has loomed large on the political scene here for many years but has always been a bit of a drag on the DPJ platform; without him the dynamic changes substantially. It looks like the election may become even more interesting than thought.
You may call Japanese politics many things, but "boring" is not one of them.
Wednesday, April 22, 2009
Mail fraud, corruption and the DPJ
Here's a "creative" business idea: send mail advertisements disguised as newsletters from support groups for the disabled. They have heavily discounted postal rates you can take advantage of and save more than 90% on the postal fee. Since the distribution fee is a major part of any advertising campaign, the sums are not trivial; we're talking billions of yen here. There is the little detail that defrauding the post office is illegal, and taking indirect advantage of disabled people for cheap marketing is not the most socially upstanding thing you could engage in.
Now the indictments are coming (had a link to Asahi here but it disappeared), and it turns out this idea was both more widespread and carefully planned than it first seemed. The companies involved are not small fly-by-night operations but include Best Denki, a nationwaide chain of electronics shops. The group had formal agreements in place on how to divide up the savings of at least 650 million yen so far (perhaps up to 20 billion yen overall). Also, they seem to have taken advantage of other postal discounts in a similar manner before switching to disability support groups. The "support group" currently in the news, Hakusankai, may have been set up specifically to take advantage of the mail discount system. Garden-variety fraud; so far, so good.
Here's a twist: When Best Denki first tried to send off a batch of advertisements under the guise of Hakusankai in 2007, he post office refused. The return address didn't go to Hakusankai but to Best Denki, which violated rules for the discounted rate and aroused suspicion. At that point an aide to Yoshio Maki, a DPJ lawmaker, intervened; he went to a regional office with Hakusankai representatives and "asked questions about the conditions for the disability discount" (as Asahi puts it), after which the direct mail was accepted and sent. Maki himself seems to have tried to defend the operation in the Diet. Oh, and completely incidentally - no connection att all, really - Yoshikuni Morita, arrested head of the Hakusankai is a long time donor to and supporter of Yoshio Maki. If you ever wondered what political corruption looks like, search no further. So what, you may wonder; "dirty Japanese politician" is pretty much a tautology after all.
This matters. Maki is an opposition DPJ lawmaker. And as it happens, there's an election coming up very soon (no later than September). The election really is mainly beteween the incumbent LDP, a conservative party of the old political class, bereft of policy ideas or ideological coherence and torn between wildly divergent factions vying for power; and DPJ, a, well... conservative party of the old political class, bereft of of policy ideas or ideological coherence and torn between wildly divergent factions vying for power. The truth is, both parties consists of much the same people from the same old political families, positioned around same end of the political spectrum, and as far as implementing policy is concerned they're close enough not to matter. Each party has its ideologically far-flung wings making noise, but they're unlikely to actually affect policy. The rhethoric is much more divergent than the actions.
In fact, the only major perceived difference has been one of morals. The LDP is seen as an old, corrupt party, in power only for the benefit of its representatives and their donors. DPJ would be a break from this endemic corruption and sleaze and, in some unspecified manner, return to politics as serving the people. DPJ and its leadership and policies are no more liked than the LDP; the only reason people have had to hold their nose and vote DPJ is that they're at least not in it to line their own pockets.
When the only saving grace of the opposition is their supposed moral superiority, getting involved in this kind of postal scam is a disaster. Remember that the opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa is already under a cloud after his campaign office accepted illegal contributions from the construction industry. Seriously, now: one lawmaker's office is taking illegal contributions from the construction industry, and one is helping a scam that takes advantage of a system set up to help poor disabled people? What's next - rob a fund for widows and orphans? "No worse than the other guy" works fine for the LDP; they have the benefit of low expectations and everybody expects them to be corrupt already. But it is a disaster for DPJ. "No worse" means "no better", and if they're no better the whole reason to vote for them - the whole reason for them to exist - is gone.
It doesn't help, of course, that the DPJ really is no better. It's all the same people, from the same families, brought up in the very same political culture - frequently in the same party. Of course they're just as corrupt as their LDP colleagues. The value of a DPJ government was never about what the DPJ would do, but that a solid election defeat for the LDP could finally start the process of changing the Japanese political landscape. The amorphous LDP and DPJ would hopefully both gradually disappear in their current form, to be replaced with a 20th century professional political culture (yes, I know it's the 21st century already. Baby steps, baby steps). Exactly what that would entail nobody knows, of course, but whatever ends up replacing the current setup, chances are good it'd at least be better than the current LDP government.
Of course, "Better than LDP" is a low bar to clear, and still the DPJ has shown an amazing ability to fail in doing so. They're nothing if not consistent, I have to give them that. For whatever reason, the upcoming election keeps reminding me of this.
Now the indictments are coming (had a link to Asahi here but it disappeared), and it turns out this idea was both more widespread and carefully planned than it first seemed. The companies involved are not small fly-by-night operations but include Best Denki, a nationwaide chain of electronics shops. The group had formal agreements in place on how to divide up the savings of at least 650 million yen so far (perhaps up to 20 billion yen overall). Also, they seem to have taken advantage of other postal discounts in a similar manner before switching to disability support groups. The "support group" currently in the news, Hakusankai, may have been set up specifically to take advantage of the mail discount system. Garden-variety fraud; so far, so good.
Here's a twist: When Best Denki first tried to send off a batch of advertisements under the guise of Hakusankai in 2007, he post office refused. The return address didn't go to Hakusankai but to Best Denki, which violated rules for the discounted rate and aroused suspicion. At that point an aide to Yoshio Maki, a DPJ lawmaker, intervened; he went to a regional office with Hakusankai representatives and "asked questions about the conditions for the disability discount" (as Asahi puts it), after which the direct mail was accepted and sent. Maki himself seems to have tried to defend the operation in the Diet. Oh, and completely incidentally - no connection att all, really - Yoshikuni Morita, arrested head of the Hakusankai is a long time donor to and supporter of Yoshio Maki. If you ever wondered what political corruption looks like, search no further. So what, you may wonder; "dirty Japanese politician" is pretty much a tautology after all.
This matters. Maki is an opposition DPJ lawmaker. And as it happens, there's an election coming up very soon (no later than September). The election really is mainly beteween the incumbent LDP, a conservative party of the old political class, bereft of policy ideas or ideological coherence and torn between wildly divergent factions vying for power; and DPJ, a, well... conservative party of the old political class, bereft of of policy ideas or ideological coherence and torn between wildly divergent factions vying for power. The truth is, both parties consists of much the same people from the same old political families, positioned around same end of the political spectrum, and as far as implementing policy is concerned they're close enough not to matter. Each party has its ideologically far-flung wings making noise, but they're unlikely to actually affect policy. The rhethoric is much more divergent than the actions.
In fact, the only major perceived difference has been one of morals. The LDP is seen as an old, corrupt party, in power only for the benefit of its representatives and their donors. DPJ would be a break from this endemic corruption and sleaze and, in some unspecified manner, return to politics as serving the people. DPJ and its leadership and policies are no more liked than the LDP; the only reason people have had to hold their nose and vote DPJ is that they're at least not in it to line their own pockets.
When the only saving grace of the opposition is their supposed moral superiority, getting involved in this kind of postal scam is a disaster. Remember that the opposition leader Ichiro Ozawa is already under a cloud after his campaign office accepted illegal contributions from the construction industry. Seriously, now: one lawmaker's office is taking illegal contributions from the construction industry, and one is helping a scam that takes advantage of a system set up to help poor disabled people? What's next - rob a fund for widows and orphans? "No worse than the other guy" works fine for the LDP; they have the benefit of low expectations and everybody expects them to be corrupt already. But it is a disaster for DPJ. "No worse" means "no better", and if they're no better the whole reason to vote for them - the whole reason for them to exist - is gone.
It doesn't help, of course, that the DPJ really is no better. It's all the same people, from the same families, brought up in the very same political culture - frequently in the same party. Of course they're just as corrupt as their LDP colleagues. The value of a DPJ government was never about what the DPJ would do, but that a solid election defeat for the LDP could finally start the process of changing the Japanese political landscape. The amorphous LDP and DPJ would hopefully both gradually disappear in their current form, to be replaced with a 20th century professional political culture (yes, I know it's the 21st century already. Baby steps, baby steps). Exactly what that would entail nobody knows, of course, but whatever ends up replacing the current setup, chances are good it'd at least be better than the current LDP government.
Of course, "Better than LDP" is a low bar to clear, and still the DPJ has shown an amazing ability to fail in doing so. They're nothing if not consistent, I have to give them that. For whatever reason, the upcoming election keeps reminding me of this.
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Ozawa Comes Through
The opposition party DPJ has a well-deserved reputation of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And true to form, party leader Ozawa's secretary has just managed to get arrested for accepting illegal campaign contributions on behalf of Ozawa from a construction company.
Yes, it looks more than a little convenient that this investigation and arrest happens to occur just when it is really, desperately most needed by the ruling LDP - if I understood the morning news correctly the donations happened three years ago - but that does not obscure the fact that the allegations most likely are completely true. This is a disaster for Ozawa, of course, whether he personally knew about it or not, but also a serious blow for the DPJ. As Tobias Harris points out, the only way to even halfway save the DPJ is for Ozawa to step down and anoint a successor before the fallout becomes even worse.
Here's the problem: DPJ and LDP are very much alike. You might imagine them as an old, tired entrenched ruling party on one hand, and a scrappy fresh newcomer full of new ideas and initiatives on the other. That is not the case. The DPJ is very much the same as LDP. Their detailed policies differ, but DPJ and LDP largely occupy the same general area in the political landscape, and they consist largely of the same political old guard, with the same kind of hereditary political background. Ozawa himself is typical: he was weaned within the LDP and left it for the opposition in the aftermath of an internal political fight. The DPJ is effectively more like a broken-out faction of the LDP than like a truly independent party. A hypothetical example for Swedish readers would be if all other current parties were tiny and inconsequential, and the only real voter choice is between two overlapping wings of the Social Democrats.
This is the reason that the relentless decline of LDP in the opinion polls have mostly not been accompanied with a corresponding increase for the DPJ. The DPJ has rightly been viewed as "LDP with another name", and the main challenge for Ozawa has been to break that perception and remake the DPJ into a true opposition alternative. That work has now been well and truly ruined. Taking illegal campaign money - from the construction industry no less; even loan sharks and pachinko parlors have better reputation - is such classic LDP behavior that voters have every reason to ask whether they'd actually get any substantial change with the DPJ. And truth is, they probably won't.
The end result is disconcerting. The consistent winner in opinion polls is "None/None of the above", and that non-answer is likely to gain further if the next election delivers a weak LDP government in the lower house while the disgraced DPJ holds on to the upper house. LDP has consistently shown it is utterly unable to work with the opposition - after almost two years of a divided house the thought hasn't even occurred to them - and so we might see at least another few years of completely ineffectual non-leadership from the political establishment, at a time when leadership is desperately needed.
My fear is that the strength of "None of the above", and the certain decline of voter interest is paving the way for a radical third option, a real alternative to the twins of LDP/DPJ. And while an alternative is desperately needed I'm really worried about what alternative that may be. Had DPJ managed to hold it together and take the reins with an actual mandate, that could have created the opportunity for an orderly transformation of Japanese politics.
But with them falling apart before the election the transformation (which will happen, one way or another) risk becoming anything but orderly. The kind of parties and political movements that spring out of this kind of political chaos are rarely the kind that you'd actually want to have running a country: populist rather than responsible; extremist rather than mainstream; dictatorial rather than democratic; divisive rather than uniting. It's not a substantial risk - not yet - but just the possibility is worrying.
Yes, it looks more than a little convenient that this investigation and arrest happens to occur just when it is really, desperately most needed by the ruling LDP - if I understood the morning news correctly the donations happened three years ago - but that does not obscure the fact that the allegations most likely are completely true. This is a disaster for Ozawa, of course, whether he personally knew about it or not, but also a serious blow for the DPJ. As Tobias Harris points out, the only way to even halfway save the DPJ is for Ozawa to step down and anoint a successor before the fallout becomes even worse.
Here's the problem: DPJ and LDP are very much alike. You might imagine them as an old, tired entrenched ruling party on one hand, and a scrappy fresh newcomer full of new ideas and initiatives on the other. That is not the case. The DPJ is very much the same as LDP. Their detailed policies differ, but DPJ and LDP largely occupy the same general area in the political landscape, and they consist largely of the same political old guard, with the same kind of hereditary political background. Ozawa himself is typical: he was weaned within the LDP and left it for the opposition in the aftermath of an internal political fight. The DPJ is effectively more like a broken-out faction of the LDP than like a truly independent party. A hypothetical example for Swedish readers would be if all other current parties were tiny and inconsequential, and the only real voter choice is between two overlapping wings of the Social Democrats.
This is the reason that the relentless decline of LDP in the opinion polls have mostly not been accompanied with a corresponding increase for the DPJ. The DPJ has rightly been viewed as "LDP with another name", and the main challenge for Ozawa has been to break that perception and remake the DPJ into a true opposition alternative. That work has now been well and truly ruined. Taking illegal campaign money - from the construction industry no less; even loan sharks and pachinko parlors have better reputation - is such classic LDP behavior that voters have every reason to ask whether they'd actually get any substantial change with the DPJ. And truth is, they probably won't.
The end result is disconcerting. The consistent winner in opinion polls is "None/None of the above", and that non-answer is likely to gain further if the next election delivers a weak LDP government in the lower house while the disgraced DPJ holds on to the upper house. LDP has consistently shown it is utterly unable to work with the opposition - after almost two years of a divided house the thought hasn't even occurred to them - and so we might see at least another few years of completely ineffectual non-leadership from the political establishment, at a time when leadership is desperately needed.
My fear is that the strength of "None of the above", and the certain decline of voter interest is paving the way for a radical third option, a real alternative to the twins of LDP/DPJ. And while an alternative is desperately needed I'm really worried about what alternative that may be. Had DPJ managed to hold it together and take the reins with an actual mandate, that could have created the opportunity for an orderly transformation of Japanese politics.
But with them falling apart before the election the transformation (which will happen, one way or another) risk becoming anything but orderly. The kind of parties and political movements that spring out of this kind of political chaos are rarely the kind that you'd actually want to have running a country: populist rather than responsible; extremist rather than mainstream; dictatorial rather than democratic; divisive rather than uniting. It's not a substantial risk - not yet - but just the possibility is worrying.
Friday, January 11, 2008
On Ombudsmen and Portfolios
There's been a long string of food safety and other consumer scandals here lately - enough that the "kanji of the year" became "偽" (nise), "deception" (with the runner up "食" (shoku) food, and third place "嘘" (uso) lie - you know, just to ram it home properly). This issue hasn't gone unnoticed in political circles, so recently the opposition party DPJ proposed the establishment of an Ombudsman for "consumer affairs". Observing Japan (good blog - read it) just posted that the LDP government now is counter-proposing a ministerial portfolio for "consumer affairs". This shows a significant difference of opinion on what "consumer affairs" is, exactly; or, in any case, shows the appearance of such.
Background
A bit of political background: here we have the perpetually-in-power conservative party LDP. It is a fairly loose organization with a number of internal factions ranging from somewhat liberal to the blackest of nationalistic reactionaries. LDP is currently, with the aid of New Komeito (a small Buddhist party), in power of the all-important lower house. The main opposition party is the DPJ, which is a loose conservative party with factions ranging from liberal to pretty scarily conservative. LDP got trounced in the upper house election last year (as did New Komeito) over the slapstick-tragedy handling of lost pension accounts, so DPJ now has control over the upper house, and if there is a general election for the lower house anytime soon, LDP looks pretty likely to lose power there as well (for only the second time ever).
The actual differences between LDP and DPJ are small by most standards - on most issues the difference between the parties are a lot smaller than the difference of views of factions within each party. Which party is in control is thus not going to make much of a difference in the actual governance of the country; instead, voting is mostly about approval of the current government rather than about any choice of political direction (direction is chosen by internal faction politics, not public elections). As a consequence, framing issues in terms of government performance become all-important for both parties.
Proposals
"Ombudsman" is a Swedish word - one of the very few entering the international vocabulary in current times. It means "representative", and is originally specifically a person or office tasked with representing the public against the government, especially regarding government or institutional abuse of powers. As such, an ombudsman's office is set to be independent of the government or organization it oversees and has powers (sometimes far-reaching powers) to collect information, get access to officials, aid citizens in court cases and take cases to court themselves.
Advocating a ministerial portfolio for consumer affairs effectively argues that the problem is a lack of regulation or oversight. "Consumer affairs" is in this view about dishonest producers, cheating merchants and lack of quality control. Reasonable enough - many of the scandals have been about inappropriate or mislabeled ingredients, expiration date cheating or outright lying to consumers. In this - the LDP - view, the task is to tighten regulations and increase controls so that dishonest businesses won't get away with it, harming the honest merchants in the process. It is a matter of confidence in the industry and making sure that some bad eggs (sic) don't ruin it.
Advocating for an Ombudsman like DPJ does, on the other hand, is effectively saying that "consumer affairs" is a problem with the government and the state and regional bureaucracies; that they are taking sides for producers, manufacturers and other businesses, short-changing the consumer. In this view, errant companies defrauding consumers is not the actual problem but an effect of a regulatory and legal system set up for the benefit of business rather than consumers (and when you look at current and historical events, this frankly seems a rather more accurate view than the alternative "bad eggs" view above).
So here we at have a real, substantive policy difference between these two parties. Either the government is not doing enough policing and needs to do more to combat consumer fraud and cheating; or the government has a damaging pro-business-only outlook that facilitates abuse and has to shift towards a focus on consumer rights.
Except, I can't stop wondering - is it really a coincidence that the party who holds power advocates a solution that exonerates the government while increasing its reach, while the party that does not proposes a solution that blames bad governance and seeks to regulate it? The cynic in me believes that had the roles been reversed, so would the solutions. And it rather strongly suspects that neither suggestion was made with any intention of actually implementing them and any result will be a toothless, purely symbolic one good enough to generate a quick ten seconds on the news.
Background
A bit of political background: here we have the perpetually-in-power conservative party LDP. It is a fairly loose organization with a number of internal factions ranging from somewhat liberal to the blackest of nationalistic reactionaries. LDP is currently, with the aid of New Komeito (a small Buddhist party), in power of the all-important lower house. The main opposition party is the DPJ, which is a loose conservative party with factions ranging from liberal to pretty scarily conservative. LDP got trounced in the upper house election last year (as did New Komeito) over the slapstick-tragedy handling of lost pension accounts, so DPJ now has control over the upper house, and if there is a general election for the lower house anytime soon, LDP looks pretty likely to lose power there as well (for only the second time ever).
The actual differences between LDP and DPJ are small by most standards - on most issues the difference between the parties are a lot smaller than the difference of views of factions within each party. Which party is in control is thus not going to make much of a difference in the actual governance of the country; instead, voting is mostly about approval of the current government rather than about any choice of political direction (direction is chosen by internal faction politics, not public elections). As a consequence, framing issues in terms of government performance become all-important for both parties.
Proposals
"Ombudsman" is a Swedish word - one of the very few entering the international vocabulary in current times. It means "representative", and is originally specifically a person or office tasked with representing the public against the government, especially regarding government or institutional abuse of powers. As such, an ombudsman's office is set to be independent of the government or organization it oversees and has powers (sometimes far-reaching powers) to collect information, get access to officials, aid citizens in court cases and take cases to court themselves.
Advocating a ministerial portfolio for consumer affairs effectively argues that the problem is a lack of regulation or oversight. "Consumer affairs" is in this view about dishonest producers, cheating merchants and lack of quality control. Reasonable enough - many of the scandals have been about inappropriate or mislabeled ingredients, expiration date cheating or outright lying to consumers. In this - the LDP - view, the task is to tighten regulations and increase controls so that dishonest businesses won't get away with it, harming the honest merchants in the process. It is a matter of confidence in the industry and making sure that some bad eggs (sic) don't ruin it.
Advocating for an Ombudsman like DPJ does, on the other hand, is effectively saying that "consumer affairs" is a problem with the government and the state and regional bureaucracies; that they are taking sides for producers, manufacturers and other businesses, short-changing the consumer. In this view, errant companies defrauding consumers is not the actual problem but an effect of a regulatory and legal system set up for the benefit of business rather than consumers (and when you look at current and historical events, this frankly seems a rather more accurate view than the alternative "bad eggs" view above).
So here we at have a real, substantive policy difference between these two parties. Either the government is not doing enough policing and needs to do more to combat consumer fraud and cheating; or the government has a damaging pro-business-only outlook that facilitates abuse and has to shift towards a focus on consumer rights.
Except, I can't stop wondering - is it really a coincidence that the party who holds power advocates a solution that exonerates the government while increasing its reach, while the party that does not proposes a solution that blames bad governance and seeks to regulate it? The cynic in me believes that had the roles been reversed, so would the solutions. And it rather strongly suspects that neither suggestion was made with any intention of actually implementing them and any result will be a toothless, purely symbolic one good enough to generate a quick ten seconds on the news.
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