First, Tobias Harris of Observing Japan is compiling an "election handbook" and has done a seat-by-seat survey of the chances of every single candidate in the country (I got exhausted just browsing through it). His prediction sees a possible 279 seats for the DPJ, and believes they will manage to get comfortably over the 240 seats needed for a majority. He sees LDP getting 159 seats and New Komeito 15 seats, a substantial loss for both parties (though again, these are probably worst-case figures for them).
Meanwhile, centrist Asahi Shimbun rather optimistically predicts (japanese) a whopping 300 seats for DPJ, completely reversing the 300 seats now held by the LDP. I say "optimistically" not "deludedly" because the Yomiuri Shimbun (close to the LDP) also sees a possible 300 seats for the DPJ according to their survey. Of course, both newspapers have an agenda and may have their own reasons to push the idea of a DPJ landslide. On one hand, the DPJ will want to create the perception of momentum; that tends to bring in undecided voters and fence-sitters. On the other hand, the LDP might want to exaggerate the possible defeat in order to mobilize their base.
Me, I'm still a firm believer in the DPJ's ability to self-destruct, to screw up and bungle even the most surefire win. And I think it unwise to underestimate the LDP election machine; it has long experience of bagging elections after all, and at least passive support of substantial parts of the theoretically neutral civil service. I still think we'll see the DPJ get just about 240 seats, give or take a few. Unlike the people above I also doubt that New Komeito will lose many seats. They have a strong base, a captive audience, and they could probably keep many of their current seats even without campaigning.
A small Yakitory and pub in Shinsaibashi. It's not election related; I just like the picture. It's a good place and we're going there again tonight.
By the way, I have few election-related pictures. The reason is simple: campaigning mostly happens during the day, when I'm at work. In the evenings it's usually too dark (and I'm too tired) to go out and hunt candidates with the camera.
