tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post3634607017616278168..comments2022-09-16T07:19:18.056+09:00Comments on Janne In Osaka: Smoke Detector StatsJan Morenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-15969058047937229782009-11-19T01:46:03.574+09:002009-11-19T01:46:03.574+09:00This comment has been removed by the author.tripgrasshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01166096244391260785noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-29204621637253746622009-11-17T17:01:42.661+09:002009-11-17T17:01:42.661+09:00True. It's really a variation of Bayesian infe...True. It's really a variation of Bayesian inference. But I can't really fault the schools for not teaching that - I wasn't kidding when I wrote above that I need a diagram to understand this. It really is quite difficult and counterintuitive to come to grips with and if people (like me) can't internalize it after years of using it, what are the chances of teaching it over a week or two in high school?Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-87536130165987485922009-11-17T16:06:07.020+09:002009-11-17T16:06:07.020+09:00The situation here is also a nice example for the ...The situation here is also a nice example for the so-called "prosecutor's fallacy", where the misunderstanding occurs in conditional and prior probabilities. Realizing the increasing frequency of this misunderstanding, one might start questioning not only the quality, but also the way math is being taught at schools. At least, I do :)<br /><br />- TahaAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com