tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post40650249661202939..comments2024-03-14T20:55:21.709+09:00Comments on Janne In Osaka: Pay to WorkJan Morenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-67980062205157727112008-03-16T09:40:00.000+09:002008-03-16T09:40:00.000+09:00I think the point rather is that there are only we...I think the point rather is that there are only weak incentives _not_ to split anymore. You would need some kind of crisis moment or flashpoint for groups of likeminded lawmakers from both parties to make up their mind and actually form their own "party" (whether it would be a party in name or intent at the beginning is perhaps unlikely). I'd guess it'd be a fairly gradual series of events, with a cross-party "study group" or similar that gradually solidifies and takes over the policy decisions for its members until the older parties can no longer ignore the transgression and ends up kicking the members out. You'd have some sort of "You're with us, or with them. Not both."-event, and which way the members break would depend on what kind of leadership existed and what crisis moment precipitated the break.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-68871931681765868372008-03-15T11:11:00.000+09:002008-03-15T11:11:00.000+09:00In the US, universities routinely poach star acade...In the US, universities routinely poach star academics from each other with money, research facilities, light teaching loads and other incentives, they force lesser lights struggle to get on the tenure track. This reminded me of the disparities between star athletes, journeymen players and minor leaguers.<BR/><BR/>Back to politics, the Japan Communist Party and the New Kōmeitō are closer to the Nordic/German model, while the LDP and DPJ resemble the British. We have nothing like the US Democrats and Republicans, where even the party platform is optional when it comes to Congressional votes. Basically, the LDP and DPJ allow its members to escape without serious punishment as long as they merely absent themselves or abstain and do not actually vote against the parry line. Now there are significant ideological variances within each of the two parties and a near-total overlap between the two. Moreover, there are no sets of overriding issues around which substantial numbers of likeminded people can permanently cohere to the exclusion of other issues. This is not a situation that is conducive to significant splintering of either of the two.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-45499530654652389322008-03-14T14:44:00.000+09:002008-03-14T14:44:00.000+09:00It was lost on me, actually; I don't follow sports...It was lost on me, actually; I don't follow sports so the example didn't come to me. But it's a good example, especially since it shows how the teams retain leverage in the form of contracts and hefty salaries in order to keep their players loyal throughout the season. Players changing teams outside that system is rare and outrageous enough to generate a fair bit of headlines, scorn and lawsuits when it does happen.<BR/><BR/>Academia, by contrast, doesn't have all that much leverage any more, outside the tenure system (if you're tenured you tend to stay put no matter what). But most researchers aren't tenured and simple arithmetic shows the majority will never be. I have seen how easy it is for a researcher with some funding - no big name, just another jobbing academic - to shop around among universities for the best deal on desk and lab space in exchange for being named in their publications. Departments tend to be ranked for their publications just like individual researchers after all.<BR/><BR/>In politics, leverage can go from extreme to all but non-existent. One end is heavily party-oriented parliamentary systems, where the party is the political unit and the representative really is just there to push the right button at voting time, and form the recruitment base for various intra-party or government positions. In Sweden I never knew who "my" representative was, and it never mattered; they'd vote the party line no matter what. In theory, you could have a parliamentary system with no parties at all, but the benefits of grouping together are too great to ignore, in politics as everywhere, so I'm not aware of any place that has ever been the reality.<BR/><BR/>In Observing Japan's <A HREF="http://www.observingjapan.com/2008/03/why-realignment-is-inevitable.html" REL="nofollow">take on this</A> is interesting. I agree that the weak bonds holding the current parties mean that a realignment is quite possible. But of course, in the absence of a change in relative leverage between lawmaker and party those new ideologically conformant groups would start to drift apart over time just like the current parties.<BR/><BR/>It would be interesting to see what would happen would DPJ erect a new policy on this: Give the candidate a binding contractual promise to cover most campaigning and election costs in exchange for most funding going to DPJ election funds instead of the candidate directly. Then make a point of recruiting electable candidates rather than just those with enough funds to make it on their own. If they could build serious election coffers and be willing to use it for their candidates, that could constitute enough leverage to consolidate the party.Jan Morenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06834641501438709866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5455782214242472677.post-35561424406040507782008-03-14T11:57:00.000+09:002008-03-14T11:57:00.000+09:00Fascinating, Janne. It is probably not lost on you...Fascinating, Janne. It is probably not lost on you, though, that the post-free agency world of sports with endorsement and media money is a better analog. Politics has somewhat diffrent boundaries, both inherent and situational, that make it not "improbable" but unlikely that political free agency will be the order of the day and the two major non-ideological parties splinter any time soon.<BR/><BR/>I'll see if it's worthwhile to elaborate these thoughts at more length.Jun Okumurahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00291478225274759649noreply@blogger.com